Hard Poker Truth: You Can Play A Hand Perfectly And Lose.

Hard poker Truth: You can play a hand perfectly and lose.

That’s one of the toughest psychological lessons for amateurs because they tend to be results-oriented. The top players, meanwhile, focus on having the favored hand when all the money gets in because they can’t control the deck, as former champion Greg Raymer painfully discovered again in this hand from the 2010 World Series of Poker $10,000-buy-in main event at the Rio Hotel in Las Vegas.

With blinds at $50-$100, an early position player raised to $300. Raymer called with K-Q of diamonds in middle position. The small blind re-raised to $1,000. With deep stacks early, the initial raiser and Raymer called.

The flop came K-10-2, two diamonds, giving Raymer top pair and the second-nut flush draw. The small blind checked. The initial raiser made it $1,500. Raymer called. The small blind check-raised to $5,000. The initial raiser folded.

“If he’s re-raising out of position pre-flop, he probably has a good hand,” said Raymer, winner of the 2004 main event. “But then he checks this flop. He could be trapping. When he check-raises, I decided he probably does have two aces.

“Our stacks are $30,000 deep [Raymer has his opponent covered by several thousand]. I’ve decided that if I shove in here, it really looks like a set. If he has two aces, I’m thinking it’s the first level of the main event, and he’s not going to take a chance of going broke with two aces in this spot. He seemed like he was an aware enough player.

“If he calls me with two aces, I have 14 outs twice and I’m the favorite to win. If he had called me and showed two aces and said, ’I’ll trade with you,’ I’d have said no because I’m over 50 percent to win with K-Q of diamonds.”

Raymer shoved. His opponent called and showed pocket 10s for a set.

The turn came the 8 of spades, the river came the 5 of clubs, and Raymer was crippled.

“I didn’t think a pair of 10s was likely,” said Raymer, a pro from the PokerStars online site. “First of all, there’s a 10 on the board. Now, there are three ways he can make pocket 10s and six ways he can make pocket aces, six ways he can make pockets kings. Those hands become statistically more likely.

“When you’re deep-stacked like that, I hate his re-raise pre-flop with two 10s because now if the initial raiser in early position makes it $3,000, the blind has to fold two 10s. So, why are you turning your two 10s into a potential bluff?

“Then, if I don’t have a big hand like that, his check-raise on the flop gets everybody to fold.

“That’s poker. Sometimes you make absolutely the wrong decision and it works out; sometimes you make the right play and you lose.”

 

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